Tripe, Simon. Both on a personal level (family finances) and on a World level.
No sensible person, in a market that has been rising for a while, mortgages themselves to the hilt of what they can afford! Why not? Because the THINKING amongst us, who BOTHER to look at history, know that the slump IS coming.... particularly if mortgage ratios exceed 100%. You therefore mortgage yourself to the level that you can AFFORD W*H*E*N the crash comes..... as it surely will!
How do I know this? For many years, I WAS an estate agent and, in 1988.... I did EXACTLY what what stupid do.... I mortgaged myself BEYOND the hilt.... and only just survived it! 12 colleagues who set up their own agencies at the same tome I did, did EXACTLY the same as me.... and went BANKRUPT when the recession hit. I was plain LUCKY, that's all! It taught me some SEVERE lessons, nearly costing me my businesses and my HOUSE! It cost me my WHOLE investment portfolio of property..... some 15 business premises and 12 houses for rental! I'd built THAT lot up over 15 years hard work!
This time round, I had grown up a bit.... and I'd been MUCH more cautious, even when banks were THRUSTING money at me.... Am I in the SH*T now???? Not financially, at least. I WILL return to the property market when the latest recession shows REAL sign of ending!
On a world-stage, it was not Lehmans nor AIG put us in the current situation. Germany had NOT borrowed excessively, unlike US (but was behaving badly in other ways!). The effects of AIG and Lehmans WOULD have hit the Germans as badly as us had THEY borrowed..... why DIDN'T it? Simply BECAUSE they had NOT boprrowed 'to the hilt' when THEY were capable of doing so.... WE HAD.... as had the PIIGS and it was that un-payable BORROWING that wiped the PIIGS and us....
Luckily our FEEBLE and HALF-HEARTED attempts to control our borrowing have persuaded 'investors' that we really HAVE mended our ways.... even though, in reality, we have not cut ANYTHING..... our rate of INCREASE of debt has just been marginally trimmed! It's only because we LOOK as though we are doing something and even THAT feeble amount is more than others!
Oh.... and being away on an 'event' with a group of VERY substantial investors (insurance and pension company investors, I am not one of them) when the run started on Northern Rock was THE start of the 'nasties'. I heard many of the conversations with multiple banks and even a couple of 'Ministers' and Mandarins during that trip and saw the ashen faces that spread round the room. Lehmans was over a YEAR later! Or would you blame the Nortern Rock crisis on AIG too.....? Northern Rock showed what COULD happen..... the fear was that it looked unavoidable in the state we were...... and it WAS!
Ian
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